To answer your question, there really is no simple rule. I tend to use the rule of 10 - 10 casts, or 10 minutes of scouting no signs of fish in the area before moving on or changing patterns, but again, this does not always hold true. You mention that you saw some fish splashing around. Hmm.. Makes me think Carp or something like that as they do that. You really need to make an effort to find out whats in the area your fishing and then find out what they are eating. While most opportunistic feeding fish will go for buggers almost immediately, there are often times when the fish just turn off, especially with Smallies. So time is a factor too, along with weather of course.
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